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A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling

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posted on 2023-06-09, 18:33 authored by Zsolt Vizi, Istvan Kiss, Joel Miller, Gergely Röst
For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Journal of Mathematics in Industry

ISSN

2190-5983

Publisher

SpringerOpen

Issue

1

Volume

9

Page range

1-15

Department affiliated with

  • Mathematics Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Mathematics Applied to Biology Research Group Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2019-08-01

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2019-08-01

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2019-07-31

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