esd-11-755-2020.pdf (4.58 MB)
Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Version 2 2023-06-07, 08:43
Version 1 2023-06-07, 06:49
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 08:43 authored by Mohammad Shamsudduha, Richard G TaylorUnder variable and changing climates groundwater storage sustains vital ecosystems and enables freshwater withdrawals globally for agriculture, drinking water, and industry. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwater storage (?GWS) from 2002 to 2016 in 37 of the world's large aquifer systems using an ensemble of datasets from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and land surface models (LSMs). Ensemble GRACE-derived ?GWS is well reconciled to in situ observations (r=0.62–0.86, p value?<0.001) for two tropical basins with regional piezometric networks and contrasting climate regimes. Trends in GRACE-derived ?GWS are overwhelmingly non-linear; indeed, linear declining trends adequately (R2>0.5, p value?<0.001) explain variability in only two aquifer systems. Non-linearity in ?GWS derives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishment associated with extreme annual (>90th percentile, 1901–2016) precipitation and is inconsistent with prevailing narratives of global-scale groundwater depletion at the scale of the GRACE footprint (~200?000?km2). Substantial uncertainty remains in estimates of GRACE-derived ?GWS, evident from 20 realisations presented here, but these data provide a regional context to changes in groundwater storage observed more locally through piezometry.
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Publication status
- Published
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- Published version
Journal
Earth System Dynamics and DiscussionsISSN
2190-4979Publisher
European Geosciences UnionExternal DOI
Issue
3Volume
11Page range
755-774Department affiliated with
- Geography Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2019-11-21First Open Access (FOA) Date
2019-11-21First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2019-11-20Usage metrics
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