(2) Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented.pdf (857.86 kB)
Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?
journal contributionposted on 2023-06-09, 20:07 authored by Nicholas CraftsNicholas Crafts, Terence C Mills
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.
- Accepted version
JournalNational Institute Economic Review
PublisherCambridge University Press
Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
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