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Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?

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posted on 2023-06-09, 20:07 authored by Nicholas Crafts, Terence C Mills
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

National Institute Economic Review

ISSN

0027-9501

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Volume

251

Page range

R47-R53

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2020-01-06

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2020-02-10

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2020-01-07

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