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Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 08:16 authored by Neil Sherborne, Joel C Miller, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Istvan KissThis paper introduces a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model to epidemics where the transmission and recovery processes are driven by general independent probability distributions. Edge-based compartmental modelling is just one of many different approaches used to model the spread of an infectious disease on a network; the major result of this paper is the rigorous proof that the edge-based compartmental model and the message passing models are equivalent for general independent transmission and recovery processes. This implies that the new model is exact on the ensemble of configuration model networks of infinite size. For the case of Markovian transmission themessage passing model is re-parametrised into a pairwise-like model which is then used to derive many well-known pairwise models for regular networks, or when the infectious period is exponentially distributed or is of a fixed length.
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Journal of Mathematical BiologyISSN
0303-6812Publisher
Springer VerlagExternal DOI
Issue
3Volume
76Page range
755-778Department affiliated with
- Mathematics Publications
Research groups affiliated with
- Mathematical Physics Group Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2017-10-12First Open Access (FOA) Date
2017-10-12First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2017-10-12Usage metrics
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