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One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict
journal contributionposted on 2023-06-08, 18:48 authored by H Buhaug, J Nordkvelle, T Bernauer, T Böhmelt, M Brzoska, J W Busby, A Ciccone, H Fjelde, E Gartzke, N P Gleditsch, J A Goldstone, H Hegre, H Holtermann, V Koubi, J S A Link, P M Link, P Lujala, J O'Loughlin, Clionadh RaleighClionadh Raleigh, J Scheffran, J Schilling, T G Smith, O M Theisen, Richard TolRichard Tol, H Urdal, N von Uexkull
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.
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