PhysRevD.74.123506.pdf (211.4 kB)
Present and future evidence for evolving dark energy
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 09:31 authored by Andrew R Liddle, Pia Mukherjee, David Parkinson, Yun WangWe compute the Bayesian evidences for one- and two-parameter models of evolving dark energy, and compare them to the evidence for a cosmological constant, using current data from Type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the cosmic microwave background. We use only distance information, ignoring dark energy perturbations. We find that, under various priors on the dark energy parameters, LambdaCDM is currently favoured as compared to the dark energy models. We consider the parameter constraints that arise under Bayesian model averaging, and discuss the implication of our results for future dark energy projects seeking to detect dark energy evolution. The model selection approach complements and extends the figure-of-merit approach of the Dark Energy Task Force in assessing future experiments, and suggests a significantly-modified interpretation of that statistic.
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Publication status
- Published
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- Published version
Journal
Physical Review DISSN
0556-2821External DOI
Issue
12Volume
74Pages
9.0Department affiliated with
- Physics and Astronomy Publications
Notes
Lead author, contributed much of the analysis and all the writing. First comprehensive use of multimodel Bayesian inference in cosmology, including new methods to assess expected outcome of future dark energy experiments.Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-02-06First Open Access (FOA) Date
2016-03-22First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2016-11-10Usage metrics
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