The fate of balanced, phenotypic polymorphisms in fragmented metapopulations

In large populations, genetically distinct phenotypic morphs can be maintained in equilibrium (at a 1 : 1 ratio in the simplest case) by frequency-dependent selection, as shown by Sewall Wright. The consequences of population fragmentation on this equilibrium are not widely appreciated. Here, I use a simple computational model to emphasize that severe fragmentation biases the morph ratio towards the homozygous recessive genotype through drift in very small populations favouring the more common recessive allele. This model generalizes those developed elsewhere for heterostylous plants and major histocompatibility complex alleles, emphasizes one particular outcome and avoids the restricting assumptions of more analytical models. There are important implications for both fundamental evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. I illustrate this with a range of examples but refer particularly to shell polymorphism in snails. These examples show how habitat fragmentation could have a direct and often unappreciated effect on species at the level of their population genetics.