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The impact of official rumor-refutation information on the dynamics of rumor spread

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-15, 20:41 authored by Maziar NekoveeMaziar Nekovee, Yi Zhang, Jiuping Xu, Zongmin Li
The rapid development of the internet has resulted in a significant rise in online rumor spreading. Therefore, effectively reducing or eliminating the harm resulting from these rumors has become a new research focus. This paper proposes a classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease transmission model variant to explore the influence of official rumor-refutation information quantity and content on rumor spread. A nonlinear differential equation model was constructed to describe the rumor propagation process and a next-generation matrix method employed to calculate rumor propagation threshold R0. Two types of equilibrium points are solved, and it is proven that when R0 < 1, the zero propagation equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, and when R0 > 1, the propagation equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. A sensitivity analysis was performed on R0, and the impact of official rumor refutation information content on the sensitivity of the R0 related parameters is considered. Then certain numerical values were assigned to the relevant parameters and the evolutionary mechanism simulated in different situations, with the theoretical results being verified using numerical simulation. It was found that the quantity of official rumor refutation information played a positive but non-critical role in the rumor dissemination process, it even has a backfire effect in rumor controlling process under certain conditions, while the offcial rumor-refutation information content was a key factor affecting the dissemination threshold; therefore, official information content needs to be improved to effectively control rumor spread. Finally, some policy suggestions that can contribute to rumor management in an emergency event are given.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

ISSN

0378-4371

Publisher

Elsevier

Page range

1-22

Department affiliated with

  • Engineering and Design Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Advanced Communications, Mobile Technology and IoT (ACMI) Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2022-09-05

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2022-09-05

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