Towards global convergence: Emerging economies, the rise of China and western sunset

The financial crisis indicates the underlying bankruptcy of the last of a series of attempts to restore sustained growth in advanced countries since the end of the post-war Golden Age: Italian flexible specialization, Japanese and Rhine-style lean production, the new economy and Anglo-American financialization. Over the same period a number of emerging economies and in particular China have sustained high rates of growth. In the years to come, developed country growth is likely to remain slow because no alternative high-growth model is on the horizon. A country such as China conversely has the potential to continue to grow relatively fast provided it can profoundly alter its model of development in ways that address global and national imbalances. If it and other large emerging economies do achieve further sustained growth, this will in effect reverse the gap created by industrial revolution, colonialism and imperialism. The aim of this paper is to explain the reasons for and the possibilities of such global convergence, paying particular attention to the reasons for and implications of the financial crisis and the extent to which China's fiscal stimulus contributes to a new model of Chinese development.