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Uncertainty in the assessment of hazard, exposure and risk
journal contributionposted on 2023-06-07, 23:37 authored by Michael H Ramsey
The terminology, concepts and current approaches to uncertainty in the assessment of hazard, exposure and risk are reviewed. Five generic questions are discussed on uncertainty, including sources, levels, when and how it should be dealt with or reduced, what are our gaps in understanding and how they can be addressed. A case study of lead exposure of children in Lavrion, Greece, is used to exemplify these questions and possible answers. Estimation of uncertainty may be improved by the use of interorganisational studies to capture sources of uncertainty that are often overlooked. Gaps identified in our understanding of uncertainty include: a limitation in the availability of basic measurements, a lack of knowledge of the environmental processes, an inability to predict the effects of mixtures, the aetiology of disease and devising procedures for optimal resource allocation in impact assessment.
JournalEnvironmental Geochemistry and Health
Department affiliated with
- Evolution, Behaviour and Environment Publications
NotesPaper is described by the journal as a review, but it does have new findings based upon the application of the ideas to a case study of lead exposure of children in a mining area.
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