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Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-10, 01:09 authored by Bimandra A Djaafara, Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, Robert Verity, Nicholas F Brazeau, Widyastuti, Dwi Oktavia, Verry Adrian, Ngabila Salama, Sangeeta Bhatia, Pierre NouvelletPierre Nouvellet, Ellie Sherrard-Smith, Thomas S Churcher, Henry Surendra, Rosa N Lina, othersBackground As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
BMC MedicineISSN
1741-7015Publisher
BMCExternal DOI
Issue
1Volume
19Page range
1-13Article number
a146Event location
EnglandDepartment affiliated with
- Evolution, Behaviour and Environment Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2021-09-24First Open Access (FOA) Date
2021-09-24First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-09-24Usage metrics
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