A product of their bargaining environment: Explaining government duration in Central and Eastern Europe

Since the transition to democracy in the early 1990s, more than 60 percent of governments in Central and Eastern Europe have terminated prematurely. This article seeks to understand why some governments in the region survive longer than others. I argue that the nature of party system development in the region has facilitated the emergence of a polarized pattern of party competition. As the party system structures the government bargaining process, it is contended that indicators of bargaining environment complexity are essential to understanding why some governments are more durable than others. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to estimate the effect of bargaining environment variables. The results show that ideological diversity of the bargaining environment and the length of the coalition formation process are both significant indicators of government duration in Central and Eastern Europe even after controlling for economic performance, majority status and the regime divide.